Photo: Bloomberg
Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting that the ongoing federal government shutdown could extend into mid-November. The shutdown, which began on October 7, shows little sign of resolution as partisan gridlock persists. According to data from Kalshi, traders expect the shutdown to last approximately 44 days, with a 44% probability that it will continue until November 15, and a one-in-three chance it could stretch beyond November 20. The trading volume on Kalshi has reached over $12.7 million.
Similarly, Polymarket traders are also predicting an extended shutdown, with 44% expecting it to end after November 16. As of now, more than $147,000 has been wagered on this outcome. While these markets do not serve as formal forecasts, they provide a real-time snapshot of trader expectations.
Since 1976, the U.S. government has experienced 20 shutdowns, with the longest lasting 34 days during President Donald Trump's administration over a border wall funding dispute. The current shutdown has already resulted in sweeping layoffs and the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal workers. The Senate has failed multiple times to resolve the impasse, and the House remains adjourned since September 19, with no plans to reconvene until the shutdown ends.